Risk Metrics for Schools

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SCHOOL METRICS

Risk of In-School Transmission

Metrics

Lowest risk 

Lower risk

Moderate risk

Higher risk

Highest risk

Number of individuals with infections per cohort in past 2 weeks

<1 individual infected in <10% of cohorts

<1 individual infected in <25% of cohorts

<1 individual infected in <35% of cohorts

>1 infected individuals per cohort in at least 1 and <10% of cohorts

>1 infected individuals per cohort in >10% of cohorts

Number of cohorts with >1 infections in past 2 weeks

<10%

10 to <25%

25 to <35%

35 to <50%

>50%

School report card score

>80

70 to <80

60 to <70

50 to <60

<50


Risk of Community Transmission

Metrics

Lowest risk 

Lower risk

Moderate risk

Higher risk

Highest risk

Number of new cases per 100,000 in last 14 days

<5

5 to <20

20 to <50

50 to < 200

>200

Percentage of RT-PCR tests positive in last 14 days1

<3%

3 to <5%

5 to <8%

8 to < 10%

>10%

Percent inpatient beds occupied1

<80%

80 to 90%

>90%

 

 

GUIDANCE FOR METRICS

  • This chart is intended to provide initial guidance for school administrators regarding decisions to open/close schools. Administrators should take into consideration other factors such as staffing capacity, family comfort, school resources, etc. to make comprehensive decisions.
  • Risk of COVID-19 transmission in schools is primarily depicted by school-specific metrics, which should be prioritized over community metrics in decisions to open/close schools
    • Metrics are listed in descending order of priority in this chart
  • The most important metric is number of infections per cohort because >1 infection per cohort among students in different households suggests COVID-19 spread within the cohort
    • Decisions regarding school closure should be made by school administration and local health department
  • Community metrics provide background data and can guide ancillary activities (e.g., extracurriculars) at schools. However, instructional model changes should primarily be dictated by school-specific metrics.
    • When community transmission is at highest risk, consider cancelling all in-person extracurricular activities
    • When community transmission is at moderate or higher risk, consider cancelling all indoor extracurricular activities and any outdoor activities where physical distancing is not possible
    • When community transmission is at lowest or lower risk, considering allowing extracurricular activities to be hosted indoors with masking and physical distancing (though outdoors is still preferred)
    • See West Virginia’s School Re-entry Toolkit (p.24) for example guidance of extracurricular activity modifications

References

  1.  “COVID-19 - School Reopening: Indicators to Inform Decision Making,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), accessed December 2, 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html.