Risk Metrics for Schools
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SCHOOL METRICS
Risk of In-School Transmission |
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Metrics |
Lowest risk |
Lower risk |
Moderate risk |
Higher risk |
Highest risk |
Number of individuals with infections per cohort in past 2 weeks |
<1 individual infected in <10% of cohorts |
<1 individual infected in <25% of cohorts |
<1 individual infected in <35% of cohorts |
>1 infected individuals per cohort in at least 1 and <10% of cohorts |
>1 infected individuals per cohort in >10% of cohorts |
Number of cohorts with >1 infections in past 2 weeks |
<10% |
10 to <25% |
25 to <35% |
35 to <50% |
>50% |
>80 |
70 to <80 |
60 to <70 |
50 to <60 |
<50 |
Risk of Community Transmission |
|||||
Metrics |
Lowest risk |
Lower risk |
Moderate risk |
Higher risk |
Highest risk |
<5 |
5 to <20 |
20 to <50 |
50 to < 200 |
>200 |
|
<3% |
3 to <5% |
5 to <8% |
8 to < 10% |
>10% |
|
<80% |
80 to 90% |
>90% |
GUIDANCE FOR METRICS
- This chart is intended to provide initial guidance for school administrators regarding decisions to open/close schools. Administrators should take into consideration other factors such as staffing capacity, family comfort, school resources, etc. to make comprehensive decisions.
- Risk of COVID-19 transmission in schools is primarily depicted by school-specific metrics, which should be prioritized over community metrics in decisions to open/close schools
- Metrics are listed in descending order of priority in this chart
- The most important metric is number of infections per cohort because >1 infection per cohort among students in different households suggests COVID-19 spread within the cohort
- Decisions regarding school closure should be made by school administration and local health department
- Community metrics provide background data and can guide ancillary activities (e.g., extracurriculars) at schools. However, instructional model changes should primarily be dictated by school-specific metrics.
- When community transmission is at highest risk, consider cancelling all in-person extracurricular activities
- When community transmission is at moderate or higher risk, consider cancelling all indoor extracurricular activities and any outdoor activities where physical distancing is not possible
- When community transmission is at lowest or lower risk, considering allowing extracurricular activities to be hosted indoors with masking and physical distancing (though outdoors is still preferred)
- See West Virginia’s School Re-entry Toolkit (p.24) for example guidance of extracurricular activity modifications
References
-
“COVID-19 - School Reopening: Indicators to Inform Decision Making,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), accessed December 2, 2020, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html.